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The industry forecast released by the American Chemical Council(ACC)recently shows that the US chemical industry has overcome a difficult year of 2023,and the economy will continue to be sluggish or even recession in 2024.ACC assessment shows that although the US chemical industry production(excluding pharmaceuticals)will decrease by 1.0%in 2023,there will be a slight improvement in 2024,with an expected growth of 1.5%.
ACC Chief Economist Martha Gilcrist Moore stated that the trend of slowing consumption in the third quarter of 2022 has not improved in 2023.This weakness is caused by destocking.With the lifting of restrictions on the COVID-19 epidemic in various countries,the world’s consumption experienced a peak.When demand cooled,dealers and manufacturers found that there were too many stocks,so they reduced their purchases.Moore said,”The industry is recovering,but it is bound to face an economic downturn or even recession in 2024.”
After the United States announced a 2.3%GDP growth in 2023,ACC predicts that the economic growth in 2024 will only be 1.1%.Due to high loan interest rates,sales in certain industries may be affected,such as automotive manufacturing,which is the main consumer of polymer chemicals,with an average consumption of approximately$4000 per car for chemical products.
In 2023,there was a significant rebound in US car sales,with light vehicle sales reaching 15.5 million units,higher than 13.8 million units in 2022.ACC predicts that sales in 2024 will remain unchanged from 2023.However,the real estate market will continue to decline,with the US housing occupancy rate dropping from 1.55 million units in 2022 to 1.39 million units in 2023.ACC predicts a lower occupancy rate of 1.35 million units in 2024.
Through subsidies for sustainability and other industrial investments,with the support of the US Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act,commercial investment increased by 4.1%in 2023,and investment growth in 2024 is expected to decrease to 0.6%due to higher borrowing costs and slower consumer spending.
In addition,ACC expects zero growth in the US industrial sector in 2024.A highlight of the American chemical industry is its relatively inexpensive raw materials.The bulk petrochemical products in the United States are typically made from natural gas,while other regions such as Europe and East Asia rely on oil.
Moore said,”Over the past decade,natural gas prices in the United States have continued to decline.With this advantage,chemical companies have established large-scale petrochemical and polymer projects,and polymer exports are indeed very active,with a 14%increase compared to the same period in September 2023.Competitive American products are entering the world market,which meets everyone’s expectations.”.