中文
The non-ferrous metals team of the research department of China International Capital Corporation(CICC)recently announced that it is expected that the global shortage of tungsten supply will continue until 2027.The current overseas tungsten inventory is at a historical low,and the demand for countries to increase their tungsten”safety stock”is becoming increasingly urgent.
From early 2024 to July,tungsten prices first rose and then fell,approaching historical highs at one point;Since July,tungsten prices have fluctuated upwards again and have now risen to around the 90th percentile of the price range in the past 20 years.
The Zhongjin Nonferrous Metals team believes that tungsten is a dominant metal in China.According to data from the United States Geological Survey(USGS),the concentration of global tungsten supply is high,with China ranking first in the world in terms of tungsten reserves and production in 2023,accounting for 52%and 81%respectively.In the long run,CICC expects China’s tungsten concentrate production to remain at a level of 63400 metal tons from 2023 to 2027.
From the perspective of overseas supply,the overall development process of large-scale tungsten mines overseas is relatively slow,and in recent years,only Kazakhstan has formed a strong certainty of supply increment.Although the reserve production ratio of overseas tungsten resources is higher than that of China,with greater development potential,there is still some uncertainty in the development process due to environmental permits and financing pace.According to the metal quantity,it is expected that the increase in tungsten ore supply in Kazakhstan in 2025,2026,and 2027 will reach 3600,4600,and 5700 metal tons,accounting for 4.4%,5.4%,and 6.6%of the global raw tungsten supply,and contributing more than 50%to the increase in overseas tungsten supply.Based on the supply trends in China and overseas,it is expected that the global supply of raw tungsten will increase from 78000 tons to 86300 tons from 2023 to 2027,with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6%.
According to data from the International Tungsten Industry Association,tungsten consumption is mainly composed of hard alloys,special steel and related alloys,tungsten materials,tungsten chemicals,and others,accounting for 65%,14%,12%,and 9%respectively.In terms of domestic demand,China’s trade in policy and stable growth policy are expected to boost the consumption of traditional tungsten.The global supply chain restructuring is also activating tungsten demand in emerging market countries such as Southeast Asia.
China International Capital Corporation(CICC)believes that it is worth noting that the current overseas tungsten inventory is at a historical low,coupled with the gradual rise of global geopolitical risks,and the demand for countries to increase their tungsten”safety stock”is becoming increasingly urgent.The addition of tungsten element can significantly improve the service life,penetration performance and other indicators of mechanical equipment,and tungsten metal has strong irreplaceability in the field of high-end equipment.According to data from Canadian Almonti Industries,global demand for high-end equipment accounts for 10%of downstream tungsten consumption.In two evaluations in 2013 and 2018,the US Department of Defense included tungsten in the list of critical materials,and the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act,which came into effect in April 2024,also listed tungsten as a”critical mineral”,highlighting its increasing strategic importance.
China International Capital Corporation(CICC)believes that as global geopolitical risks gradually rise,countries are expected to engage in hoarding of tungsten”safety stock”.