中文
Recently,the prices of coking coal and coke futures have continued to fluctuate at low levels,with coking coal futures prices falling to a new low in nearly five years at the end of February.
The continuous decline in coking coal futures prices is mainly caused by the continuous increase in supply,weak demand,and overall loose fundamentals,while the decline in coking coal futures prices is mainly brought about by the downward movement of coking coal costs,”said Wang Xintong,a black researcher at Dongzheng Futures.
Wei Yaru,a coal and coke researcher at Haitong Futures,told reporters that the fundamentals of dual coke have remained loose recently.After the Spring Festival holiday,the supply of coke has continued to rebound.In the early stage,due to policy expectations,the market still had support,but in recent days,there have been no more positive news in the market.Downstream demand has not recovered as expected,and the recovery of iron and steel production has been slow.The price of dual coke has further declined.After reaching a nearly 5-year low of 1068 yuan/ton in mid February,the 2505 contract for coking coal futures maintained consolidation and volatility,while the trend of the 2505 contract for coke futures was relatively weaker,with prices continuing to decline.After reaching a low of 1655 yuan/ton at the end of February,it maintained consolidation,which is also the lowest point for coke futures prices since May 2020.
Currently,most coal mines are maintaining normal production.Although the supply of coking coal is slightly higher than the same period last year,there is still a certain gap compared to the second half of last year.The overall supply of coking coal still has room for recovery.However,due to the current period of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference,the overall increase in production is relatively slow according to the principle of safety production.It is expected that the production will recover to 9.88 million tons this week.Wei Yaru said that in terms of imported coal,due to high port inventory and the Mongolian White Moon Festival in early March,the clearance of Mongolian coal has fallen to a new low after the holiday in the past two days.With the slowdown of inventory accumulation,there is an expectation of further increase in imported Mongolian coal.
From the inventory of coking coal,the supply and demand continue to be loose.After the Spring Festival,downstream production resumed gradually,but overall demand fell short of expectations,and coking coal inventory mainly accumulated in the upstream.Data shows that as of February 28th,the total inventory of coking coal in five major ports including Jingtang Port and Rizhao Port was 4.161 million tons,a significant increase of about 2.06 million tons compared to the same period last year,reaching the second highest level in the same period of nearly six years;The inventory of raw coal in the coal mine reached 4.6174 million tons,an increase of 1.3788 million tons compared to the same period last year,far higher than the same period in previous years and at the highest level in the same period of previous years.
Wang Xintong told reporters that due to the weak overall sentiment of downstream replenishment after the Spring Festival,the spot price of coking coal continued to decline.However,the prices of coal types with significant declines earlier this week began to stabilize,and there were replenishment situations downstream.In terms of bidding,the early failure rate was relatively high,and the overall failure rate decreased this week,but spot purchases were average.In terms of supply,the recovery of coking coal supply is relatively fast,but demand has not yet started,so the growth rate of supply is faster than demand.After the Spring Festival,coal mines continued to resume production,and the operating rate of coal mines continued to increase.As of now,coal mine production has basically resumed.In terms of demand,the production of molten iron has slightly increased,and the operation of blast furnaces is still in the early stages of recovery,but downstream demand is average and has not significantly recovered.Entering March,with the recovery of downstream demand,coking coal may still have support.
It is reported that the spot price of coke has mainly fluctuated after 10 rounds of price increases and decreases.At present,some coking plants are operating at a loss,but the overall situation is basically around the breakeven line.Although coke prices continue to decline,the price of raw material coking coal has dropped even more.On the supply side,with the contraction of coking profits,the supply of coke has slightly decreased.
After the Spring Festival holiday,downstream coking plants and steel mills mainly consumed inventory.The total inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants was 14.3935 million tons,a decrease of 1.4541 million tons from the same period in 2024,which is at a low level in recent years.Among them,the inventory of coking coal in sample steel mills and independent coking plants were 7.6878 million tons and 7.9908 million tons,respectively,both at their lowest levels in the same period of history.Recently,with the expectation of warmer weather and the resumption of blast furnace production,downstream coking plants and steel mills have been replenishing their coking coal and coke inventories,and the accumulation rate of upstream inventories has slowed down.This is also a sign of improvement in the supply-demand margin,”said Wei Yaru.
Regarding the future market of coal and coke,Wang Xintong believes that in the situation of sustained oversupply of coke,it is difficult for coke to break out of an independent market,and it mainly revolves around fluctuations in coke prices.The fundamentals of coal and coke spot stocks are weak,and downstream replenishment sentiment is average,mainly relying on on-demand procurement.Entering March,with the recovery of downstream demand,coking coal prices may still have support.In the medium to long term,the contradiction on the supply side of coking coal has not been resolved,so the fundamentals are still weak.
In the medium to long term,the downward trend of dual coke prices has not changed,but with the improvement of demand enthusiasm and the expectation of macroeconomic favorable policies,the futures prices of coking coal and coke may temporarily bottom out.It is recommended to pay attention to the release of macroeconomic policies and the profit situation of coking steel enterprises in the later stage,”said Wei Yaru.