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The industry generally believes that the current economic development of EU member states has become disconnected from green transformation,and it may be very challenging to achieve a consensus of 90%emission reduction by 2040.
Recently,the European Commission announced that the release of the 2040 climate reduction target,originally scheduled for the end of the first quarter of this year,will be postponed.It is reported that in February last year,the European Union proposed to reduce the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 90%from 1990 levels by 2040.However,to date,the European Commission has stated that some member states still oppose this,and EU parties have not yet reached an agreement on this.The industry generally believes that the current economic development of EU member states has become disconnected from green transformation,and it may be very challenging to achieve a consensus of 90%emission reduction by 2040.
Climate action enters a’procrastination’mode
According to the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets previously released by the European Commission,the EU aims to reduce emissions by 55%from 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.However,the 2040 target originally scheduled to be released by the end of the first quarter of this year has entered a”procrastination”mode.Reuters quoted a spokesperson for the European Commission as saying that the 2040 climate target should not be officially launched by the end of the first quarter.In addition,the EU has not submitted a new round of emission reduction targets to the United Nations before the February deadline.
According to an article by Reuters,Europe is currently experiencing rapid climate change,with multiple catastrophic heatwaves,floods,and droughts in recent years.Climate change is having unprecedented impacts on this continent.However,economic pressures are dragging down the prospects for climate action in Europe.
According to the macroeconomic forecast released by the European Central Bank in March,the economic growth in Europe in 2024 has been slightly lower than expected,and there is still high uncertainty in trade policies within and outside the EU.The continued high geopolitical and policy uncertainty is expected to further drag down the economic growth of the eurozone this year,slowing down the pace of European economic recovery.
From the current perspective,although the EU has introduced a series of green transformation measures and development goals,the”green requirements”have put European industrial development in a difficult situation,especially the energy supply crisis that has erupted in recent years,which has pushed up the cost of energy consumption for European industries and significantly dampened investment enthusiasm.
The pressure of reality brings huge differences
The enormous pressure of reality has brought about significant differences of opinion,and Europe’s green agenda is facing pressure from some member states and industry,with different attitudes towards greenhouse gas emissions reduction.
On the one hand,some EU officials and industry insiders believe that EU climate action should not be”too fast”and that emission reduction targets should be carefully selected based on actual circumstances.CEP,a think tank based in Germany,analyzed that it would be best for the EU to choose a linear emission reduction path to achieve its net zero emissions target by 2050 at a more uniform pace.CEP policy analyst Martin Mennet stated that at a linear rate,the emission reduction target for 2040 should be set at 78%.
Italian Energy Minister Gilbert Fratti also pointed out that the European Commission needs to carefully evaluate the 90%emission reduction target,and there are currently voices suggesting that this number should be set at 80%or 85%.
For the emission reduction target,EU steel industry insiders emphasized that there is currently no”clear and feasible transformation business model”for high energy consuming industries globally,and the investment in low-carbon transformation in the entire industry is still”worriedly low”.
On the other hand,EU climate think tanks generally believe that if Europe wants to achieve climate neutrality by 2050,the EU needs to”basically completely eliminate greenhouse gas emissions”by at least 2040.
The prospect of greenhouse gas emission reduction is unclear
The European think tank Bruegel pointed out that the climate goal of reducing emissions by 90%by 2040 is facing four challenges:geopolitical instability,unclear technological progress,increasing social inequality,and policy credibility.The EU urgently needs to develop a sound emission reduction strategy.
It is reported that Poland currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union,but as an important coal producing country in the EU,Poland believes that energy transition may endanger economic development and has repeatedly opposed EU climate action related bills in voting.The industry generally predicts that the European Commission may reopen climate negotiations after the Polish elections in May this year.
However,from the current situation,the slow pace of decarbonization in Europe may affect the investment prospects of various industries for low-carbon technologies,and even weaken the international credibility of the EU on climate issues.
In a report released by the World Wildlife Fund in February,it was pointed out that even if the EU proposes to achieve a 90%reduction in emissions by 2040,it will not actually be able to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius temperature rise scenario mentioned in the Paris Agreement.Michael Sicard Klitt,the climate policy officer of the organization,pointed out that since the Industrial Revolution,Europe has made significant contributions to global climate change,and today,the EU’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions are among the highest in the world.Although setting a target of reducing emissions by 90%by 2040 is the right direction,it is actually not enough
Industry organization’Transportation and Environment’believes that any unexpected climate targets could weaken the certainty of low-carbon investment in Europe’s automotive,aviation,and shipping sectors,thereby endangering the development of clean technologies.