中文
2024 is a year of weak operation in the coal,coke and steel market.Due to the weakness of important terminal real estate and infrastructure,weak sentiment is transmitted from the terminal to the steel,and then to the dual coke in the raw material end.The black series lacks effective price support,and the supply and demand pattern of coke is relatively loose,with more price drops and less price increases.In 2025,it is expected that the supply and demand pattern of coke will continue to be loose,and the price focus will continue to shift downwards.
In 2024,the supply and demand of coke are weak,and market confidence is insufficient.The main factor affecting the coke market in 2024 is the change in the fundamental supply-demand pattern.From the supply side,4.3m coke ovens in Shaanxi and other regions have also gradually withdrawn,but due to the continued production of replacement capacity,coke production capacity has shown a net increase.However,due to the concentration of production capacity in the third and fourth quarters,and weak coking profits in the first half of the year,production has been low,resulting in a slight decrease in supply throughout the year.Downstream demand has also declined.On the one hand,the policies of controlling crude steel and peaking carbon emissions are still ongoing.On the other hand,the weak demand for steel in the infrastructure and real estate markets,which are the main downstream sectors of steel,has led to a decline in steel prices and a significant contraction in profit levels.Steel mills have experienced a decline in blast furnace operations and an overall decrease in coke demand despite losses.
Price:More falls and less rises,falling below the lowest point in nearly five years
Coke fell below the lowest price in nearly five years in mid September,mainly due to the loose supply and demand pattern leading to a lack of price support.In 2024,the price of coke showed a W-shaped trend,with a downward shift in focus.The average annual price of coke in Hebei region was 1898 yuan/ton,a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%.The decline in demand for terminal real estate and infrastructure in 2024 has led to a downward trend in steel prices,ultimately resulting in reduced profits for steel mills and a decrease in demand for coke,which in turn leads to a decrease in coke prices.From January to March,due to weak downstream demand,the resumption of blast furnace production fell short of expectations,and there was insufficient demand for coke.As a result,prices were continuously lowered for 8 rounds,totaling 800 yuan/ton.
The second wave of price reductions occurred from late July to mid September,with coke prices continuously decreasing for 8 rounds,totaling 400 yuan/ton.The two price rebounds in late April and around October of the year were mainly driven by macroeconomic favorable factors,resulting in a rebound in downstream demand.
Supply:Profit loss,overall decrease in supply
Profit loss is an important factor affecting the reduction of coke supply,and coke enterprises as a whole are still in a state of loss,leading to an overall decrease in coke supply.The decline in raw material coking coal prices has to some extent alleviated the cost pressure of coking,but due to the significant decline in coke prices,most coke enterprises still suffer losses.In 2024,the average profit of coke enterprises in Shanxi region was-23.6 yuan/ton.Due to losses,the intention to start coking production is relatively low,with an annual capacity utilization rate of about 71.4%,a decrease of 2.3 percentage points.Moreover,most of the newly added capacity will be put into operation in the fourth quarter.Therefore,the annual coke production is expected to be 487 million tons,a year-on-year decrease of 1%,showing a downward trend.
Demand:Weak terminal demand,declining demand for coke
In 2024,the infrastructure and real estate industries will be relatively sluggish,with a decrease in terminal demand.The weak sentiment will be transmitted from the terminal to the steel and then to the raw material side.The demand for coke will decline,and the consumption is expected to be 448 million tons,a year-on-year decrease of 0.67%.Due to the decline in demand for real estate and infrastructure in the downstream steel industry,steel prices have also been weak.The average price of steel billets in Tangshan area is 3284 yuan/ton,a year-on-year decrease of 9.54%.Due to the decline in steel prices,profits have shrunk,resulting in a profit of-61 yuan/ton for Tangshan steel billets,a year-on-year decrease of 106.3%.The three declines and two increases experienced by coke in 2024 were mainly driven by poor terminal demand,which led to a contraction in steel mills’profits and a reduction in blast furnace production.As a result,coke demand weakened and steel mills shifted towards raw material coke
Charcoal seeks profits,while the supply of dual coke is relatively loose and lacks price support,resulting in a decline in coke prices.
Market forecast:The supply-demand contradiction still exists,and the price center of gravity continues to shift downwards.
From the trend of 2025,the supply and demand of coke will be loose throughout the year,so the annual average price will continue to decline.Several turning points in prices are expected to occur in February,April,September,and October.During the Spring Festival in January,the demand from steel mills was weak,and prices lacked support.The lowest point in prices may occur in February;With the resumption of production by steel mills,the demand for coke has improved,and coupled with the expected demand for gold,silver,and silver,coke prices are expected to rebound.After April,entering the mid-term downstream consumption off-season,coke prices may enter a downward range again,with the lowest monthly average price appearing in July at 1600 yuan/ton.After arriving in September,influenced by the expected rebound in demand during traditional peak seasons,blast furnace operations have resumed and coke demand has improved,supporting the rise in coke prices.Subsequently,the market is expected to hit the high point of the year,with a monthly average price peak of 1920 yuan/ton in October.After entering the heating season in November,requirements such as heavy pollution weather warnings have weakened the supply and demand of coke,resulting in loose expectations for coke coal supply and a lack of support for coke prices entering a downward adjustment range.