中文
Recently,European electricity prices have been like riding a roller coaster,experiencing severe fluctuations.This is the result of multiple factors intertwined and working together,such as extreme weather,regional conflicts,and the transformation of Europe’s energy structure.It not only exposes deep-seated problems in the European energy system,but also poses severe challenges to existing energy policies and market mechanisms.
The sudden drop in temperature in Europe has caused a surge in electricity prices.According to data from the European Electricity Exchange,on December 11th,due to the expected wind power generation level being far below seasonal normal standards,the hourly electricity price in Germany recently broke the highest record in 18 years at auction,soaring to 936.28 euros(about 7125.60 yuan)per megawatt hour,equivalent to 7.125 yuan/kilowatt hour.The electricity price situation in other European countries is also not optimistic.Electricity prices in southern Norway have skyrocketed by 20 times,while electricity prices in Italy,France,and Spain have also set new historical highs.Even Denmark,which has relatively abundant energy resources,has a price of over 11 yuan per kilowatt hour of electricity.The German Energy Industry Association stated that such price fluctuations are not the first time they have occurred,and with the increasing number of extreme weather events and the growing demand for electricity,such fluctuations may become more frequent in the future.
Against the backdrop of severe supply-demand imbalance,the European electricity market is under unprecedented pressure.Energy analysts have pointed out that the special climate conditions this winter are an important cause of the electricity price crisis.It is predicted that this winter may be the coldest since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The scarcity of sunlight and wind power in winter has led to a sharp decline in solar and wind power generation,far from meeting the growing electricity demand of European people in the cold winter.Therefore,electricity production has to rely more on imported high priced natural gas to fill the gap.However,the transit contract for Russia to supply natural gas to Europe through Ukraine will expire on January 1,2025,and there is a risk of a significant reduction in Europe’s natural gas imports at that time.Francisco Blanche,head of commodity and derivatives research at Bank of America,believes that this could lead to a rise in EU natural gas prices from nearly 50 euros/megawatt hour now to 70 euros/megawatt hour by 2025.
The drastic fluctuations in electricity prices also highlight the instability of renewable energy in Europe.In 2023,renewable energy will become the main source of electricity for the European Union.According to data from the European Statistical Office,the proportion of renewable energy in the electricity production mix is as high as 44.7%,an increase of 12%compared to 2022,while the share of fossil fuels has significantly decreased by 19%.As the main energy sources gradually transition from traditional coal and nuclear power to renewable energy such as wind and solar power,the influence of renewable energy in European market pricing is increasing.However,its instability also makes it difficult for it to shoulder the responsibility of ensuring stable power supply alone.When the climate conditions are poor,the power generation of these energy sources will fluctuate significantly,posing a huge challenge to the power supply.
The structural flaws of the European energy system itself have been exposed in this electricity price crisis.The problems of insufficient power reserves,lack of energy storage facilities,and poor flexibility of the power grid make the energy system unable to cope with sudden electricity demand.Meanwhile,the gradual phasing out of traditional energy sources has also weakened the stability of the energy system to a certain extent,making it more vulnerable to shocks.In addition,the EU’s carbon emissions trading system has also brought heavy cost pressure to power companies.The system requires power companies to purchase permits for carbon emissions,and the significant increase in carbon prices in recent years has indirectly pushed up the cost of electricity production.
The soaring electricity prices have led to a continuous increase in energy costs,forcing some energy intensive industries in Europe to slow down or stop production,seriously weakening the competitiveness of European industries.Energy costs have become a focus of attention for European policy makers.In recent months,European industry associations have put forward initiatives targeting energy intensive industries such as the EU steel industry,calling for increased energy subsidies or reduced tariffs included in electricity prices to ensure the competitiveness of European electricity prices.
Analysts believe that in the face of such severe challenges,improving the European electricity market is urgent.On the one hand,building cross-border energy infrastructure is an urgent task.The European Commission has stated that electricity consumption is expected to increase by approximately 60%by 2030.However,it is concerning that 40%of the distribution network has been in use for over 40 years,making it difficult to cope with the growing demand and the increase in renewable energy sources such as solar panels.In addition,the uneven development of electricity prices and the uneven distribution of renewable resources among European countries have hindered the interconnection and coordination of the European electricity market.Building cross-border energy infrastructure can not only balance the development level of renewable energy in various countries,strengthen energy circulation and resource sharing within the EU,but also better tap into the potential of the European electricity market and help Europe achieve its green agreement goals.
On the other hand,improving energy efficiency and achieving diversified energy structures are also effective ways to stabilize electricity prices.London School of Energy Economics Dean Yusuf Al Shamali stated that relying solely on renewable energy cannot avoid energy crises and rising electricity prices.He suggested that Europe should attach importance to and develop stable energy sources such as nuclear energy to reduce its dependence on imported energy.
The energy self-reliance strategy in Europe is a long and arduous task.The surge in electricity prices this time is both a crisis and a test.Experts believe that in the future,Europe can only effectively address the many challenges in the energy sector by steadfastly accelerating the pace of energy transformation,continuously optimizing and improving market mechanisms,and striving to fundamentally reduce its dependence on external energy.