中文
The strategic oil reserves of the United States are already at a low level.Due to significant releases in 2022,the US strategic oil reserves have decreased by 50%compared to their peak.At present,the United States is gradually increasing its reserves to guard against the sharp rise in crude oil prices and domestic supply disruptions.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration,the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was around 383 million barrels as of the second week of October,a decrease of 47%from its peak of 726 million barrels in 2010.
The Russia Ukraine war that broke out in February 2022 led to a surge in crude oil and gasoline prices,and the Biden administration in the United States has been releasing oil reserves to the market in order to curb the skyrocketing oil prices.After the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War,the Biden administration immediately released an unprecedented amount of approximately 180 million barrels of oil,and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level in about 40 years in July 2023.
Starting from the second half of 2023,the United States will gradually increase its strategic oil reserves.Due to the confrontation between Israel and Hamas and the tense situation in the Middle East,the United States may consider preparing for a significant increase in crude oil prices and avoiding the risk of supply disruptions,”said Tetsuya Yoshida,a commodity analyst at Lotte Securities Economic Research Institute
The movement of Iran,which is in opposition to Israel,is also affecting the market’s nerves.
About 20 million barrels of oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz every day,accounting for approximately 20%of global oil demand.Iran is located adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz,and if Iran officially intervenes in the dispute between Israel and Hamas,the supply of crude oil will become increasingly concerning.Some even believe that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked,crude oil prices will soar to over$100 per barrel.
The domestic oil supply in the United States is also worrying.Hurricane landfall in areas such as the Gulf Coast where oil facilities are concentrated may lead to a halt in oil production and circulation.The disasters caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 significantly reduced crude oil production and refining capacity.According to statistics from Colorado State University in the United States,the number of days with hurricanes this year is 50,nearly twice that of previous years(1991-2020).
The stabilization of crude oil prices is also one of the reasons driving the United States to increase its strategic oil reserves.According to the US Department of Energy,the target price for purchasing oil from the private sector is below$79 per barrel.
The price of US West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures has been hovering below$79 per barrel since mid August.On October 18th,the closing price fell below the$70 mark,about 20%lower than the mid year high reached in April.
According to Takayuki Nokami,Chief Economist of the Japan Metal and Energy Security Organization,actively increasing private purchases of crude oil”has to some extent had a supportive effect on the market”amidst the decline in crude oil prices.
The Republican Party in the United States has criticized the massive release of strategic oil reserves from the perspective of energy security.According to Reuters,former President Trump,the Republican candidate,promised in his campaign manifesto to replenish strategic oil reserves.