中文
At 24:00 on the 10th,a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will officially open.From the perspective of various institutions,the retail price of refined oil products is expected to experience its eighth increase in 2024.
During this round of price adjustment cycle,international oil prices first fell and then rose,with significant fluctuations.On the supply side,the OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production cuts before the end of November will still be in effect,and multiple oil producing countries have stated that they will implement compensatory production cuts.In addition,the tense atmosphere in the Middle East has not been eliminated,potential supply risks continue,and the pattern of tight supply is still present.
On the demand side,after the traditional peak season in the United States ended,commercial crude oil inventories showed a trend of recovery,and market concerns about the global economy and demand outlook have not dissipated.The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in November has dropped to 25 basis points,and the benefits provided by relatively mild interest rate cuts in the future may be limited.
According to Longzhong Information,as of October 8th,the average reference crude oil price for the cycle was$73.42 per barrel,an increase of 2.43%compared to the previous cycle.There is little doubt about this round of price increase.According to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism,the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices on October 11th was about 115 yuan/ton.If calculated based on a 70 liter fuel tank,private car owners will spend about 6 yuan more to fill up one tank.
Since the beginning of this year,domestic oil prices have undergone 19 rounds of adjustment,with a cumulative”seven rises,eight falls,and four suspensions”.After offsetting gains and losses,domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell by 215 yuan and 205 yuan per ton,respectively.If this round of price adjustment is implemented,the adjustment of refined oil prices within the year will present a pattern of”eight increases,eight decreases,and four suspensions”.
From a retail perspective,the current prices of 92#and 95#gasoline at Sinopec gas stations in Shandong are 7.34 and 7.87 yuan/liter,respectively.It is expected that the retail prices will rise this round,and private car owners can refuel in advance.From the perspective of retail profit level,although wholesale prices have fallen during the cycle,the previous round of domestic retail price reduction was significant,higher than the decline in wholesale prices,resulting in a high-level decline in retail profits.
According to the”ten working days”principle,the next round of retail price adjustment window for refined oil products will open at 24:00 on October 23,2024.
For the future,Liu Bingjuan,a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information,believes that OPEC+production cuts will continue,and multiple oil producing countries have expressed support for production cuts.Coupled with the unstable situation in the Middle East,the favorable situation of tight supply will continue to exist,but demand pressure may suppress the upward space of oil prices.It is worth noting that the accumulated increase in international oil prices during the National Day holiday will provide significant support for the next round of price adjustments,and it is expected that there is a high probability of a price increase for refined oil products in the next round.
Looking ahead to October,Li Xinyue,an energy and chemical researcher at Zhuochuang Information,believes that risk appetite has rebounded,but its impact on oil prices has weakened.During the peak of autumn inspections in European and American refineries,crude oil inventories have turned to accumulation,and oil prices may show a trend of oscillation and weakening within the month,with significant price volatility.Pay attention to the OPEC+ministerial meeting in October,while being vigilant about changes in US economic data,especially employment and third quarter economic growth data.If the data deteriorates,the downward trend of oil prices may further intensify.
According to Jinlianchuang analysis,thanks to the rebound of crude oil futures at a low level,the news has given a certain boost,and with the decrease in the operating load of domestic refineries and a certain degree of reduction in the supply of refined oil products,the overall domestic prices in the fourth quarter may fluctuate and rebound.However,with the return of the National Day holiday,the travel radius of vehicles has narrowed,and coupled with the increasing penetration rate of new energy,the demand for gasoline has relatively decreased.At the same time,outdoor oil companies are limited in their production during winter,and diesel demand is gradually declining.Overall,it is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel market will show a trend of first rising and then falling in the fourth quarter.