中文
The United States announced that it will impose tariffs on Chinese goods such as electric vehicles.Several industry insiders have stated that this policy has little actual impact on China’s lithium battery industry chain.
The White House announced on the 14th that it will impose tariffs on a series of Chinese goods,including steel and aluminum,semiconductors,electric vehicles,batteries,key minerals,solar cells,port cranes,and medical supplies.The new measures will affect goods worth$18 billion.According to the official website of the White House,tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will be increased from the current 25%to 100%.
Several industry insiders have stated that the policy currently has little actual impact on China’s lithium battery industry chain.Zhang Jinhui,a senior researcher at Xinlun Information,said in an interview with Caixin News that the policy is better than the market’s previous expectations.”It is mainly used by(American politicians)in elections and does not affect our company’s profits.”In the field of lithium batteries,the United States currently relies on China’s lithium battery supply chain and cannot produce its own quantity.In the short term,it does not have the ability to decouple from China’s supply chain.Otherwise,natural graphite and energy storage batteries will not wait until 2026 to increase tariffs.”.
A top negative electrode material company official also told reporters that the US new energy vehicle market(at this stage)still cannot do without the supply chain of Chinese companies.Based on factors such as infrastructure speed,power supply,and skilled worker support in the United States,it is estimated that it will be difficult for the negative electrode material production capacity in the United States to form effective competitiveness within 3-5 years.
In fact,the relevant policies of the United States towards Chinese lithium battery products are also constantly changing.The news in early May that the United States relaxed its tax credit restrictions on electric vehicles using Chinese graphite in batteries attracted attention from the capital market.At that time,industry insiders believed that it was beneficial for the industry but had limited impact,as the US market size accounted for a small proportion.
In fact,although the export volume of new energy vehicles in China continues to rise,the proportion of the US market is not significant.According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,China’s automobile production and sales reached a historic high in 2023,with 1.2 million new energy vehicles exported,a year-on-year increase of 78%.According to data from the China Association of Automobile Dealers cited by Guoyuan Securities,in 2023,Europe,the largest market for new energy vehicle exports in China,and Asia,the second largest market,together accounted for 77%,while the North American market,where the United States is located,accounted for only 13%.
In terms of overseas layout,domestic power battery manufacturers are leveraging the European market,and the first batch of production capacity of CATL and Guoxuan High tech have been put into operation.Dongxing Securities’s March research report predicts that domestic manufacturers in the European region will begin to release their production capacity intensively in 2025,and the European layout is about to enter a harvest period.
Specifically,Ningde Times plans to add 100GWh of production capacity to Hungary.The first phase of construction began in October 2023 and is expected to be completed in about 2 years;Guoxuan High Tech’s Göttingen PACK production line in Germany has recently been officially put into operation,with a total planned fourth phase production capacity of 20GWh expected to be put into operation by 2025.In addition,the company plans to jointly build a 40GWh production capacity with InoBat and seeks to invest nearly 100GWh in Morocco;Yiwei Lithium announced on June 8,2023 that it will invest in the construction of a large cylindrical battery production capacity in Hungary,with a construction period of 4 years and a production capacity of about 28GWh;In addition,China Innovation Airlines,Xinwangda,Funeng Technology and others have all announced plans to increase production capacity in the European region.
This month,leading power battery manufacturers are also continuously expanding their European territory.CATL and France’s DaFei Shipping Group have signed a cooperation agreement,and the two sides will engage in in-depth cooperation in fields such as electric ships,commercial vehicles,warehousing and logistics,and renewable energy;The head of BYD’s European Automotive Sales Division stated that BYD is preparing to make a huge investment in the European Union,with a potential scale of billions of euros,and aims to become the largest electric vehicle seller in the European market by 2030.